开云体育下载-TES险胜PSG，Oner送出助攻

　　查看PDF原文 公告日期：2016-03-02

　　高鑫零售(06808) F15 results in line and Sun Art raised dividend pay-out to 62%from 42% in F14 on improving FCF Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) and FCF all improving,which supports valuation Hold with unchanged TP HKD 5.2; market remains concernedon competition FY15: in-line results and 23.5% y-o-y increase in dividend: 15.7% y-o-y fall inattributable net profit to RMB2,443m was in-line with our and consensus estimate.Dividend increased 23.5% y-o-y as the company raised the pay-out. Slowing opening ofnew hypermarkets (2015: 36, 2014: 49), meant capex fell RMB1.1bn to RMB4,624m.Operating cash flow also improved on positive y-o-y growth in the prepaid card salesbalance. Thus, net cash rose to RMB5,978m by Dec 2015 from 5,490m in Dec 2014. Thefall in net profit was from margin contraction in the hypermarket business on -3.6% SSSGand rise in loss from Ecomm. Attributable loss from Ecomm was up by RMB170m y-o-y,negatively impacting attributable net profit in FY15 by 7% or y-o-y growth by 5.7ppts. Trends are improving: First, SSSG improved to 2-3% in Jan-Feb thanks to favourableweather and positive growth in prepaid cards. The company expects FY SSSG to beslightly positive supported by improving card sales and rising contribution from online tooffline (0.4% of sales in FY15 and target to reach 1% in FY16). Second, new storeopening will be controlled at 30-40 vs. annual open target of 50-55 before. Third,ecommerce loss will have a smaller impact on net profit y-o-y growth in FY16 thanks to anarrowing in loss ratio on larger GMV. Valuation is supportive but competition remains a concern: Sun Art now trades at16x PE16e (historical range 13x-39x since IPO) and EV/EBITDA of 5x, a 32% discount tothe developed market peers. Improving earnings momentum and FCF should supportvaluation. We expect net profit from hypermarkets to resume positive growth in FY16 aftera 10% y-o-y decline in FY15. Adding loss from ecommerce, we expect 2016 attributablenet profit to fall 3% y-o-y. However, concerns on competition remain, which are risks toloss from ecommerce and margin of hypermarkets. We expect the total loss fromecommerce to increase to RMB550m in F16 (RMB405m in F15) as the company growsthe Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) five-fold to RMB5bn. Remain Hold with TPHKD5.2. Our TP is based on DCF using WACC of 8.4% and terminal growth rate of 2%.Our DCF is based on the FCF from the hypermarket business and we deduct theaccumulated loss from ecomm to derive the fair value for equity. The unchanged TP is aresult of higher net cash offsetting newly added accumulated loss from Ecomm. OurTP implies PE16e of 15x on hypermarket EPS.

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